Southern Utah
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
74  Matthew Wright JR 31:44
129  Kasey Knevelbaard SO 31:57
151  Aidan Reed FR 32:02
166  Josh Collins SO 32:06
269  George Espino JR 32:25
402  Brady Olson SO 32:43
593  Liam Kennell JR 33:06
717  Kyle Warrick FR 33:20
749  Koy Moore SO 33:23
National Rank #25 of 312
Mountain Region Rank #6 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 79.3%
Most Likely Finish 23rd at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 3.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 34.6%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 27.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Matthew Wright Kasey Knevelbaard Aidan Reed Josh Collins George Espino Brady Olson Liam Kennell Kyle Warrick Koy Moore
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 534 31:43 31:21 31:22 32:57 32:42 32:40 33:07 33:31
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/30 575 32:02 31:35 32:09 32:11 32:08 32:50 32:47 33:39
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 32:41 32:59
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 531 31:39 31:43 32:24 31:53 32:02 32:42 33:40
Big Sky Conference 10/28 632 31:50 32:15 32:09 31:58 32:24 33:04 33:21 33:20
Mountain Region Championships 11/11 510 31:29 32:29 32:01 31:27 32:06 32:45 34:07





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 79.3% 21.0 517 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.6 1.7 2.9 3.1 3.9 4.2 5.3 4.6 4.5 6.3 6.3 4.6 5.6 4.1 4.1 3.8 2.8 2.2 0.7
Region Championship 100% 6.0 163 0.1 1.1 7.0 19.8 41.6 28.3 1.9 0.2 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Matthew Wright 87.2% 73.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6
Kasey Knevelbaard 82.3% 108.7 0.1 0.1 0.1
Aidan Reed 80.7% 118.0
Josh Collins 80.0% 131.4
George Espino 79.3% 175.8
Brady Olson 79.3% 210.2
Liam Kennell 79.3% 234.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Matthew Wright 19.9 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.6 2.7 2.1 2.8 3.4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.6 4.0 3.0 3.6 3.5 2.7 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.7
Kasey Knevelbaard 27.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.6 1.2 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.3 3.2 3.4 2.6 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.6 4.0
Aidan Reed 31.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.1
Josh Collins 33.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.7
George Espino 43.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5
Brady Olson 54.3
Liam Kennell 65.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 2
3 1.1% 100.0% 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.1 3
4 7.0% 100.0% 1.7 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.0 4
5 19.8% 95.9% 0.9 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.4 1.8 2.4 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.8 19.0 5
6 41.6% 83.5% 0.2 1.3 2.6 2.5 4.2 6.1 5.9 4.8 3.9 3.5 6.9 34.8 6
7 28.3% 61.8% 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.5 3.6 2.9 3.0 10.8 17.5 7
8 1.9% 1.9 8
9 0.2% 0.2 9
10 0.2% 0.2 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 79.3% 0.1 0.4 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.7 5.8 6.5 8.3 10.6 10.9 10.1 8.2 7.8 20.7 0.1 79.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Georgetown 99.1% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 92.4% 1.0 0.9
Boise State 89.6% 1.0 0.9
Eastern Kentucky 82.3% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina St. 81.2% 2.0 1.6
Washington St. 79.9% 1.0 0.8
Providence 78.3% 1.0 0.8
Tulsa 68.5% 1.0 0.7
Texas 56.7% 1.0 0.6
Princeton 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Texas A&M 43.0% 2.0 0.9
Eastern Michigan 42.4% 2.0 0.8
Navy 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Penn 36.5% 1.0 0.4
Illinois 32.4% 2.0 0.6
Washington 16.7% 1.0 0.2
Florida State 14.8% 2.0 0.3
Bradley 9.8% 1.0 0.1
Minnesota 8.2% 2.0 0.2
Furman 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.6% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Alabama 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.2% 1.0 0.0
California 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 12.4
Minimum 7.0
Maximum 20.0